The Business Contenders Shaping the Future of the U.S. Economy

 The Fed is the one thing that could go wrong with this statement. The Federal Reserve has pretty much decided that they will do anything to keep the economy from contracting. This doesn't seem good to me.When you intentionally smooth out volatility, as Taleb says in Antifragile, you don't get rid of it; you just concentrate it at a different time in the future. I'm afraid that day of judgment is coming. We have been making security for a while now.

Actually stable things are not the same as made stable things

And there is a healthy level of instability that we have tried to avoid at all costs because it hurts a little. But just like a little "pain" is good for your body (like exercise or getting vaccinated), a little economic pain is good for the economy. We are very weak when we try to avoid that little pain!Point 3 is probably going to be pushed back more than 5 years if this prediction comes true. America will be hurt the least by a world recession. China is likely to be hurt the most. The Japanese economy and the Chinese economy both have a lot of debt, and those debts would come back to haunt them in a slump.This big change in the population is expected to have effects that reach far and wide. To begin, the biggest shift of wealth in human history is about to happen. That's not something I mean in a weak way. That's right: over the next 50 years, $59 TRILLION will be given to Generation X and Generation Y.To give you an idea of how much $59 Trillion is, the world economy as a whole is worth $75 Trillion. 79% of the WHOLE WORLD'S ECONOMY is being moved. The way this move works alone is mind-blowing.When most of these assets are private businesses or big shares of public companies, there is some doubt about how long they will last. Studies have shown that giving businesses to the next generation in the family is not a good idea. When the next generation runs the business, it usually doesn't do well. In terms of the economy, this could be very bad.

It's possible that these forecasts are scary because I've used a via negativa method

That's not likely to be the case. We naturally like things the way they are, so any change seems bad. Things tend to go the other way, though, as history shows. We are in a better place to live and have a higher standard of living as the status quo falls apart. That should be the case today, right? As the foundations of our current system fall apart, they will almost certainly be replaced by ones we never thought of.Take the example of arcades. If we knew in 1995 that they would no longer be around in 20 years, many young boys would have been very sad. But that loss happened at the same time as a huge change in how people play games at home (with PCs and TV gaming systems). The loss of arcades was a via negativa statement that came true, which was great for teenage boys.This is the same to me. Things are changing, and most of the time, those changes are for the better. That's for sure. This change will have some good effects and some bad. But I think the future looks good for all of us.The amount of debt in the country is crazy. It's not going to get better any time soon. In the past, national debts that aren't lowered have made things much less stable. This is especially true when it comes time to get back to the tax and spending rates that should have been in place all along, and people start losing their minds. Without a doubt, the market will react badly.

A lot of the laws that were made after the last financial crisis have been taken away

Credit and lending that isn't reasonable are starting up again. Since the US government bailed out Wall Street, it's very clear that they were happy not to have learned anything. By the way, the bailout probably only put off what was going to happen anyway.

There is a biotech bubble going around the market that everyone is talking about. The ones who are getting rich off of the ACA, Medicare, and NIH funds. Those should be gone soon. As a general rule, the bubble will pop once everyone starts talking about how cool something is.

A government that is getting less and less useful because it spends too much time arguing and not enough time getting things done. There are times when our representatives might as well have been elected for life, and not many of them come from the groups they're supposed to serve. We are less able to adapt to hard times and keep a recession from turning into a slump because of this.As prices rise, wages stay the same, which means that people in the lower and middle classes can't buy as much. Not only does that make for a good sound bite, but it can't work in an economy that depends so much on market goods and services. A rich person now has enough money to open four companies instead of two. That's great, but why would he do that when no one can afford to buy anything?